Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.

Bitcoin will experience significant fluctuations

Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.

On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.

Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.

The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility

Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.

Seasonal bullish factors

The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.

The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666

(责任编辑：牌价)

• ·简易征收劳务费会计分录怎么做
• ·比特币净未实现损益受到阻力 或发出看跌信号
• ·宜人贷极速模式是怎么通过审核拿到贷款的，有人使用过极速模式吗？
• ·bitflyer如何
• ·加密货币交易所app-加密货币交易所app下载
• ·RC数字资产平台
• ·比特币重返10万美元大关 分析师上调预测：或再创新高
• ·法国10月CPI同比初值1.2%
• ·天津公积金放款时间-天津公积金放款时间查询
• ·全球有多少矿机
• ·HTX 成长学院｜加密市场宏观研究报告：特朗普交易助推比特币突破历史新高，新牛市周期到来
• ·山寨币没有钱包
• ·宜人贷借款手机信息审核不通过是为什么，有知道原因的吗？
• ·世界币的发行引发了数据隐私和人工智能未来的辩论
• ·交通运输定额发票怎么做账
• ·派币开放式主网价格-更新派币主网的市场价格