Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, stated at the Token2049 conference in Singapore that risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, may collapse within a few days after the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut.

Cutting interest rates is a bad idea

Arthur Hayes explained in an interview with CoinDesk during the Token2049 conference that the upcoming interest rate cut will exacerbate inflation issues and lead to a strengthening of the Japanese yen (JPY), thereby triggering widespread risk aversion sentiment.

Cutting interest rates is a bad idea because inflation still exists in the United States, and the government is the main driver of price pressure. If borrowing costs are reduced, this will exacerbate inflation. The second reason is that cutting interest rates will narrow the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan, which could lead to a sharp appreciation of the yen and trigger the end of yen arbitrage trading

The market had already felt the destructive impact of the strengthening of the yen and the subsequent lifting of yen arbitrage trading in early August this year, when the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark lending rate from 0 to 0.25%. Bitcoin fell from approximately $64000 to $50000 within a week.

Arthur Hayes emphasized that the short-term "USD/JPY exchange rate" is the only important indicator.

Most analysts expect the Bank of Japan to further raise interest rates in the coming months, while the Federal Reserve will take the opposite path (cutting interest rates). This policy divergence means that the yen may further strengthen, forcing investors to liquidate risky assets financed by yen denominated loans.

Arthur Hayes predicts that US interest rates will fall from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5% to near zero levels.

The initial market reaction will be negative, and the central bank's response will be to further cut interest rates to contain the crisis. So I think cutting interest rates is a bad idea, but they will still do it and it will soon drop to zero

Does Ethereum have a chance to reverse its decline?

Approaching zero interest rates means that investors may once again seek other profit opportunities, thereby bringing renewed attention to areas in the cryptocurrency market that can generate returns, such as Ethereum, Ethena's USDe, and Pendle's Bitcoin staking.

Ethereum (ETH) currently offers an annualized 4% staking yield, which will benefit in an ultra-low interest rate environment. Ethena's USDe uses Bitcoin and Ethereum as supporting assets, combined with equivalent perpetual futures short positions to generate returns, while decentralized financial platform Pendle's Bitcoin staking offered floating returns of up to 45% last week, all of which will benefit from the low interest rate environment. At the same time, the market demand for token treasury bond and other products affected by interest rates may weaken.

(责任编辑：风向标)

• ·火币比特币app
• ·比特币交易平台赚钱吗_比特币十大交易平台
• ·南京公积金贷款额度计算公式是什么？我想算一下我的贷款额度。
• ·中国打印机驱动程序中发现窃取比特币的恶意软件
• ·Chainlink 可能突破 16.5 美元，但这一阻力位对 LINK 构成压力
• ·USDC Treasury于Solana网络增发2.5亿枚USDC
• ·比特币成企业财务新宠，为什么大家争相效仿Strategy？
• ·10月31日鹏华动力增长混合(LOF)净值增长0.12%，近3个月累计上涨12.55%
• ·火币手机交易平台
• ·Buidler’s Voice对话Eigen Foundation：AVS重塑以太坊质押格局
• ·什么大雨什么停了下来-什么大雨什么停了下来造句
• ·10月31日摩根核心优选混合A净值下跌0.32%，近1个月累计下跌1.22%
• ·火币美元提现
• ·10月31日英大碳中和混合C净值下跌0.26%，近1个月累计下跌1.6%
• ·股票除权配股-股票除权配股是什么意思
• ·你我金融逾期怎么办，如果选择一直不还后果严重吗？